NOTE: Red highlighted states are ones carried by the Republican party.
Bold rows indicate states where the shortfall of registered voters from the trend
was greater than the margin of victory in that state for either party.

StateRegistered of estimated (percent)Estimation error (thousands)Republican margin (thousands)
New Mexico93.64-62.2-65.57
Hawaii94.51-30.8-138.04
North Carolina94.94-276.8173.31
South Dakota95.62-20.0110.26
West Virginia96.43-33.8300.58
Georgia96.66-169.2211.14
Iowa96.71-56.4147.31
Michigan96.77-181.410.7
Rhode Island96.83-17.6-71.98
Mississippi97.05-52.4215.58
Alaska97.18-10.446.93
New Hampshire97.3-21.2-2.74
Connecticut97.3-49.0-224.36
Kentucky97.64-54.4574.12
New Jersey97.72-97.0-546.35
Arizona97.95-65.891.23
Minnesota98.05-60.6-44.77
Missouri98.21-60.6523.44
Idaho98.41-12.8219.29
South Carolina98.47-40.0300.02
Vermont98.48-5.4-83.2
Tennessee98.49-49.8652.23
Florida98.51-145.4112.91
Kansas98.52-21.6244.01
Ohio98.57-88.6446.84
Massachusetts98.67-49.4-904.3
Oregon98.85-25.0-219.7
Virginia98.85-51.0-212.03
Delaware98.86-5.6-50.48
Pennsylvania98.92-75.244.29
Louisiana98.96-25.6398.48
UNITED STATES99.01-1,578.8-2,833.22
Wisconsin99.31-23.022.75
Alabama99.32-17.4588.71
Nevada99.46-7.4-27.2
Arkansas99.56-6.4304.38
California99.57-68.8-4,269.98
Indiana99.7-9.8524.16
Oklahoma99.9-1.8528.76
Montana100.030.2101.53
New York100.2219.8-1,701.12
Colorado100.236.6-136.39
Illinois100.7348.0-944.71
Maryland100.824.6-734.76
Texas101.31151.2807.18
Washington101.5559.8-520.97
Maine101.7414.2-22.14
District of Columbia101.998.2-270.11
Wyoming102.848.4118.45
Nebraska102.8628.0211.47
North Dakota104.5418.4123.04
Utah106.3483.4204.56